# What the Fed Makes of the Yield Curve Uninverting

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-federal-reserve-podcast-with-fexingo-interest-rates-fomc-meetings-and-monetary-policy-7871696/what-the-fed-makes-of-the-yield-curve-uninverting
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-federal-reserve-podcast-with-fexingo-interest-rates-fomc-meetings-and-monetary-policy-7871696/what-the-fed-makes-of-the-yield-curve-uninverting.md
Podcast: [The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-federal-reserve-podcast-with-fexingo-interest-rates-fomc-meetings-and-monetary-policy-7871696)
Published: 2026-06-20T05:33:16+00:00
Episode link: https://audio.fexingo.com/business/the-federal-reserve-podcast/episode-0063.mp3
Audio file: https://audio.fexingo.com/business/the-federal-reserve-podcast/episode-0063.mp3
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Duration seconds: 480

## Resource

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, a classic recession signal that hasn't yet delivered a downturn. Now it's starting to uninvert. Lucas and Luna examine what the Federal Reserve makes of this shift, how it ties to the current Fed funds rate at 3.63 percent, and why a steepening curve might signal something different this cycle. They break down the mechanics of term premiums, the role of the Fed's balance sheet runoff, and what history says about uninversions that precede soft landings. A focused look at one of the most watched—and most confusing—signals in fixed income today. #YieldCurve #Uninversion #FederalReserve #FOMC #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #Treasuries #TermPremium #SoftLanding #Recession #Bonds #FixedIncome #CentralBanking #Economy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

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