# Why Small Business Optimism Is Rising Despite Higher Treasury Yields

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-economic-forecast-podcast-with-fexingo-predictions-outlooks-and-what-s-coming-next-7871824/why-small-business-optimism-is-rising-despite-higher-treasury-yields
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-economic-forecast-podcast-with-fexingo-predictions-outlooks-and-what-s-coming-next-7871824/why-small-business-optimism-is-rising-despite-higher-treasury-yields.md
Podcast: [The Economic Forecast Podcast with Fexingo: Predictions, Outlooks, and What's Coming Next](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-economic-forecast-podcast-with-fexingo-predictions-outlooks-and-what-s-coming-next-7871824)
Published: 2026-07-21T20:28:49+00:00
Episode link: https://audio.fexingo.com/business/the-economic-forecast-podcast/episode-0125.mp3
Audio file: https://audio.fexingo.com/business/the-economic-forecast-podcast/episode-0125.mp3
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Duration seconds: 431

## Resource

Episode 125 of The Economic Forecast Podcast digs into the disconnect between rising small business optimism and the creeping sell-off in long-term Treasuries. Lucas and Luna examine the NFIB optimism index—now at its highest since early 2024—alongside the ten-year yield pushing above 4.6 percent. They explore how Main Street's brighter mood may reflect a different rate sensitivity than Wall Street assumes, and what this means for the economy's trajectory into the second half of 2026. The conversation pulls in data on the Fed funds rate holding flat at 3.63 percent, the VIX edging up to 17, and the surprising resilience of small business hiring plans even as larger firms slow recruitment. A focused look at the real economy vs. the bond market. #SmallBusiness #NFIB #OptimismIndex #TreasuryYields #TenYearYield #FedPolicy #MainStreet #Economy2026 #BusinessSentiment #HiringPlans #VIX #RateOutlook #EconomicForecast #PodcastEpisode #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Macro Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

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