# The Tax Revenue Conundrum Behind Falling Unemployment

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-economic-forecast-podcast-with-fexingo-predictions-outlooks-and-what-s-coming-next-7871824/the-tax-revenue-conundrum-behind-falling-unemployment
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-economic-forecast-podcast-with-fexingo-predictions-outlooks-and-what-s-coming-next-7871824/the-tax-revenue-conundrum-behind-falling-unemployment.md
Podcast: [The Economic Forecast Podcast with Fexingo: Predictions, Outlooks, and What's Coming Next](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-economic-forecast-podcast-with-fexingo-predictions-outlooks-and-what-s-coming-next-7871824)
Published: 2026-07-13T07:58:22+00:00
Episode link: https://audio.fexingo.com/business/the-economic-forecast-podcast/episode-0108.mp3
Audio file: https://audio.fexingo.com/business/the-economic-forecast-podcast/episode-0108.mp3
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Duration seconds: 443

## Resource

In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising paradox in the July 2026 economy: the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.2 percent, but federal tax receipts are growing slower than nominal GDP. They break down the role of capital gains taxes, corporate profit margins shrinking from 12.4 to 11.8 percent, and the shift from wage income to investment income. The discussion also touches on how the Treasury's borrowing needs are affected, with the ten-year yield rising to 4.57 percent. A must-listen for anyone trying to understand why a strong labor market isn't translating into stronger government revenues. #TaxRevenue #Unemployment #FiscalPolicy #CapitalGains #CorporateProfits #TreasuryYields #10YearYield #GDP #LaborMarket #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast #Podcast #TaxPolicy #FederalBudget #ProfitMargins #BondMarket Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

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