# Thursday - July 2, 2026

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-dividend-cafe-743128/thursday-july-2-2026
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-dividend-cafe-743128/thursday-july-2-2026.md
Podcast: [The Dividend Cafe](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-dividend-cafe-743128)
Published: 2026-07-02T17:12:00+00:00
Episode link: https://podcast.dividendcafe.com/episodes/thursday-july-2-2026
Audio file: https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/media.zencast.fm/the-dividend-cafe-1/e59623c8-88cd-4e62-905d-523d1b62b561.mp3?source=feed
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-dividend-cafe-743128/episodes/thursday-july-2-2026
Duration seconds: 395

## Resource

Brian Szytel recaps an unusual pre–July 4th market session with the Dow up 594 points (+1.15%), the S&P 500 flat, and the Nasdaq down 0.8% amid a continued unwind in momentum stocks, especially semiconductors, while value and dividend sectors outperformed and the equal-weight S&P beat the cap-weighted index. The key driver was a softer June non-farm payrolls report (57,000 jobs vs. 110,000 expected) with prior-month revisions lower, alongside a slight dip in unemployment to 4.2% driven partly by a falling labor force participation rate (61.5%, lowest since 2021). Rate-hike expectations fell sharply, with Fed futures moving to a 50/50 chance and markets pricing the Fed on hold; Szytel notes a 25 bps move is less important than AI CapEx, margins, earnings, employment, and inflation. Other data included jobless claims at 215K, average hourly earnings at 0.3%, and factory orders down 1.3% in line. 00:00 Holiday Welcome 00:33 Odd Market Snapshot 00:55 Payrolls Surprise 01:57 Rates and Rotation 02:48 No Hike Question 04:02 Other Data Points 04:35 Wrap Up and Wishes Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

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## Transcript

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