# The Fog of War: Does Trump's Iran Campaign Deter Xi Jinping's Taiwan Invasion Threat — or Increase the Danger?

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-bureau-podcast-6621098/the-fog-of-war-does-trump-s-iran-campaign-deter-xi-jinping-s-taiwan-invasion-threat-or-increase-the-danger
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-bureau-podcast-6621098/the-fog-of-war-does-trump-s-iran-campaign-deter-xi-jinping-s-taiwan-invasion-threat-or-increase-the-danger.md
Podcast: [The Bureau Podcast](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-bureau-podcast-6621098)
Published: 2026-03-11T14:00:14+00:00
Episode link: https://www.thebureau.news/p/the-fog-of-war-does-trumps-iran-campaign
Audio file: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/190610345/deebb0b3989aa519a3ee9244af762795.mp3
Processing state: not_requested
JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-bureau-podcast-6621098/episodes/the-fog-of-war-does-trump-s-iran-campaign-deter-xi-jinping-s-taiwan-invasion-threat-or-increase-the-danger
Duration seconds: 3918

## Resource

OTTAWA — In this conversation with BNN's Jason James, I wrestle with the central confusion surrounding the United States-Israel campaign in Iran. Is the objective regime change, the retrieval of enriched uranium, Israel's own objectives, or something deeper and more indirect — the culmination of a pivot from the Middle East, and a strategic warning to Xi Jinping and his axis partners in Russia and North Korea? My view is that the United States military would not have launched this campaign without a rigorous analysis of what it means for Taiwan. I open by recounting a reporting trip to Taiwan in 2023 — the same year, we now know, that the Central Intelligence Agency director privately warned Silicon Valley executives that Xi could move on Taiwan by 2027. I left that trip with several firm convictions. Xi Jinping was not a popular leader among his Red princeling cohort, and has vulnerabilities little understood in the West, including a coup-like challenge from within, prior to 2020. The current military upheaval under Xi has only deepened that assessment. And in 2023, I gathered that the United States, likely supported by Japan, Taiwan, and Australia, will not allow Beijing to blockade or invade Taiwan — and the U.S.-led coalition believes it can defeat China’s military, a conviction that holds regardless of who occupies the White House. The conversation ranges widely, from confusion surrounding Prime Minister Mark Carney’s position on Iran, to a potential trade resolution between Washington and Ottawa. The Bureau is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thebureau.news/s…

## Actions

- request_transcript: `POST https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-bureau-podcast-6621098/episodes/the-fog-of-war-does-trump-s-iran-campaign-deter-xi-jinping-s-taiwan-invasion-threat-or-increase-the-danger/transcription-requests` — Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode.
- read_markdown: `GET https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-bureau-podcast-6621098/the-fog-of-war-does-trump-s-iran-campaign-deter-xi-jinping-s-taiwan-invasion-threat-or-increase-the-danger.md` — Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource.

A page view does not enqueue transcription. Agents should invoke `request_transcript` explicitly when they need this episode processed.

## Transcript

Full transcripts are not published on public pages unless there is a clear rights basis.