# The $45,000 Bitcoin Everyone Fears Is Getting Less Likely

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-bitcoin-layer-7070444/the-45-000-bitcoin-everyone-fears-is-getting-less-likely
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-bitcoin-layer-7070444/the-45-000-bitcoin-everyone-fears-is-getting-less-likely.md
Podcast: [The Bitcoin Layer](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-bitcoin-layer-7070444)
Published: 2026-07-22T15:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://mysoundwise.com/soundcasts/1665708396190s
Audio file: https://cdn.simplecast.com/media/audio/transcoded/8ed6a33d-2ac9-4ae6-bdbb-334a1cbb3f52/93f29295-b98b-46ce-9822-223c512497e8/episodes/audio/group/e038b814-bf05-46c6-b072-204b74c126de/group-item/927ea744-3833-4d48-9d8f-58158f90a0aa/128_default_tc.mp3?aid=rss_feed&feed=Y2219Riv
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-bitcoin-layer-7070444/episodes/the-45-000-bitcoin-everyone-fears-is-getting-less-likely
Duration seconds: 3080

## Resource

In this episode, Nik walks through the latest bitcoin research from Johan Bergman, head of bitcoin research at The Bitcoin Layer, using the charts inside TBL Pulse. He explains Johan's state grid, which plots bitcoin on valuation and trend, and why the framework currently places bitcoin in disbelief territory, a zone where, together with capitulation, bitcoin has spent roughly 40% of its life. Nik covers why bulls bracing for $45,000 are facing data that makes it less likely, and why the 200-day moving average near $73,000 stands as the final boss of the downtrend. He closes on why not retesting the realized price this cycle would signal a maturing bitcoin market. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

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## Transcript

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