# Super-Spiked Videopods (EP79): Traditional Energy Profitability: Closer To Trough Than Peak

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/super-spiked-podcast-4587357/super-spiked-videopods-ep79-traditional-energy-profitability-closer-to-trough-than-peak
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/super-spiked-podcast-4587357/super-spiked-videopods-ep79-traditional-energy-profitability-closer-to-trough-than-peak.md
Podcast: [Super-Spiked Podcast](https://stenobird.com/podcast/super-spiked-podcast-4587357)
Published: 2025-09-27T13:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://arjunmurti.substack.com/p/super-spiked-videopods-ep79-traditional
Audio file: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/174617504/a95e05e0a21dfbec40b6f52271ae071b.mp3
Processing state: processed
JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/super-spiked-podcast-4587357/episodes/super-spiked-videopods-ep79-traditional-energy-profitability-closer-to-trough-than-peak
Duration seconds: 2203

## Resource

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube ( here ). STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts ( here ), Spotify ( here ), or your favorite podcast player app. DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. For the past month or so we have been pushing back on the “oil glut” narrative and the pervasive oil gloom that has existed really since Liberation Day in early April of this year, which coincided with news of an accelerated unwind of OPEC quota cuts. Another week has gone by. We are now nearly at the end of September and firmly in the post summer, pre-winter “shoulder months” period for refinery runs that in prior periods of weak balances has seen crude soften. At least through the September 24th recording date of this video, crude oil prices are hanging in there around the mid-$60s. This week we check-in on where traditional energy stands in terms of growth and profitability, which are the drivers of absolute and relative equity performance. As we have previously noted, the biggest challenge the sector faces is not unfavorable narratives from leading macro agencies or environmental activists, but a now nearly 2-year period of EPS underperformance and a softening in profitability metrics. Our two key messages this week are (1) we believe we are now much closer to the trough of what we think has been a 2-2.5-year mini-downcycle following peak oil prices seen immediately after the start of the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022. and (2) As a result of where current profitability is and where we think it is headed in coming years, Energy should close the gap between its current discounted 3% market cap weighting in favor of its 5% earnings weighting in the S&P 500. It remains our view that 2020 marked the bottom of…

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