# EP98: A New Era of Geopolitical Super Vol

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/super-spiked-podcast-4587357/ep98-a-new-era-of-geopolitical-super-vol
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/super-spiked-podcast-4587357/ep98-a-new-era-of-geopolitical-super-vol.md
Podcast: [Super-Spiked Podcast](https://stenobird.com/podcast/super-spiked-podcast-4587357)
Published: 2026-04-18T13:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://arjunmurti.substack.com/p/ep98-a-new-era-of-geopolitical-super
Audio file: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/194466156/098372e51ee17882d0f7baa343a500ef.mp3
Processing state: processed
JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/super-spiked-podcast-4587357/episodes/ep98-a-new-era-of-geopolitical-super-vol
Duration seconds: 1930

## Resource

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube ( here ). STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts ( here ), Spotify ( here ), or your favorite podcast player app. DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below. As we teased in last week’s video, we want to expand on the evolution of our Super Vol commodity macro framework to explicitly rebrand it Geopolitical Super Vol. Since Russia-Ukraine, we have resisted the super-cycle framing that we think implies a smoothness to an upcycle like seen during the 2000s China-BRICs expansion period. The current environment is more like the 1970s—arguably a super-cycle, but one with a lot more choppiness and stress along the way. The current decade is shaping up to be a modern version of that era, with some important differences. Although we are calling it Geopolitical Super Vol, we want to be clear on a few conclusions: * We believe structural profitability and opportunities for growth are significant for a broad range of companies involved in traditional energy, new energy technology, the power value chain, and a host of raw materials. * We believe the corresponding S&P 500 weighting for these sectors will increase meaningfully in the decade ahead. * It is the inevitable sharp economic downturns along the way that motivates us sticking with and evolving the Super Vol language. You can’t demand that which does not exist—and that means sharp commodity spikes will be met with similarly sharp pullbacks during this era. 0:00 Introduction 2:41 A Break from The 1980-2020 World View 6:22 Implications for Energy Sector 10:48 Investing in Energy, Power, and Materials 14:44 Obliterating Pre-Iran Views 16:36 Obliterating Pre-Pre-Iran Views 18:53 Be Wary of P…

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## Transcript

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