# Probability 3: Conditional Probability — The Updated Mind

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/reasonable-hope-philosophy-7847611/probability-3-conditional-probability-the-updated-mind
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/reasonable-hope-philosophy-7847611/probability-3-conditional-probability-the-updated-mind.md
Podcast: [Reasonable Hope (Philosophy)](https://stenobird.com/podcast/reasonable-hope-philosophy-7847611)
Published: 2026-07-08T10:43:00+00:00
Episode link: https://rss.com/podcasts/reasonable-hope-philosophy/2966375
Audio file: https://content.rss.com/episodes/384914/2966375/reasonable-hope-philosophy/2026_07_06_12_43_12_58d93183-9e78-4e2f-abb7-e0206a735f9a.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/reasonable-hope-philosophy-7847611/episodes/probability-3-conditional-probability-the-updated-mind
Duration seconds: 158

## Resource

Healthy thinking requires updating our beliefs when new evidence appears. Using conditional probability and Bayes’ Theorem, Brian explores the importance of intellectual humility and asks whether old assumptions about ourselves, others, or God are preventing us from recognizing new grace.

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## Transcript

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