# The Biggest MISTAKE First Timers Make (and How to Avoid It)

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/predictable-with-stu-burguiere-22462/the-biggest-mistake-first-timers-make-and-how-to-avoid-it
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/predictable-with-stu-burguiere-22462/the-biggest-mistake-first-timers-make-and-how-to-avoid-it.md
Podcast: [Predictable with Stu Burguiere](https://stenobird.com/podcast/predictable-with-stu-burguiere-22462)
Published: 2026-07-08T22:05:00+00:00
Episode link: https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pfx.vpixl.com/4V6da/arttrk.com/p/BLZM1/verifi.podscribe.com/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/285/pscrb.fm/rss/p/prfx.byspotify.com/e/claritaspod.com/measure/traffic.megaphone.fm/RSV9426854536.mp3
Audio file: https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pfx.vpixl.com/4V6da/arttrk.com/p/BLZM1/verifi.podscribe.com/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/285/pscrb.fm/rss/p/prfx.byspotify.com/e/claritaspod.com/measure/traffic.megaphone.fm/RSV9426854536.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/predictable-with-stu-burguiere-22462/episodes/the-biggest-mistake-first-timers-make-and-how-to-avoid-it
Duration seconds: 2533

## Resource

Prediction markets reward good analysis but they also punish one mistake that almost every beginner makes. In today's episode, Stu Burguiere explains the common trap that costs new traders money, why it happens, and how to avoid it before your next trade. Whether you're using Kalshi, Polymarket, or following election markets more broadly, understanding this principle can dramatically improve your decision-making. Stu also breaks down the latest movement in the Graham Platner market, reviews several upcoming election opportunities, and highlights the prediction markets worth watching next. Looking to learn how to trade effectively on Prediction Markets? Predictable is the show for you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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## Transcript

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