# Predictions 2026!!

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/oxide-and-friends-5250129/predictions-2026
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/oxide-and-friends-5250129/predictions-2026.md
Podcast: [Oxide and Friends](https://stenobird.com/podcast/oxide-and-friends-5250129)
Published: 2026-01-08T15:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://share.transistor.fm/s/256441f5
Audio file: https://media.transistor.fm/256441f5/a0299894.mp3
Processing state: not_requested
JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/oxide-and-friends-5250129/episodes/predictions-2026
Duration seconds: 5946

## Resource

Time for the annual predictions episode! Bryan and Adam were joined by frequent future-ologists Simon Willison, Steve Klabnik, and Ian Grunert to review past predictions and peer into the future. If any of these predictions come to fruition, it's going to be an interest 1, 3, or 6 years! In addition to Bryan Cantrill and Adam Leventhal , speakers included Simon Willison , Steve Klabnik , and Ian Grunert . Previously on Oxide and Friends: OxF s04e02 – Open Source LLMs with Simon Willison OxF s02e23 – Predictions 2022 OxF s03e20 – Predictions 2023! OxF s04e01 – Predictions 2024! OxF s05e01 – Predictions 2025 Predictions during the show: Adam 1 year: AI companies go on an acquisition binge (especially for anything that smells like data) 3 year: Crisis of AI slop open source (both projects and contributions) 6 year: Jensen hands over the reins at Nvidia 6 year: Tesla is out of the consumer car business 6 year: With the iPhone market shrinking, Apple has several new attempts at the next potential flagship product Bryan 1 year: "Vibe coding" is out of the lexicon -- or used strictly pejoratively it becomes a named condition (for which Adam -- in an act of nomenclature genius rivaling The Leventhal Conundrum -- suggested "Deep Blue") 1 year: A frontier model company has a prominent whitepaper making the case that AI will lead to broad-based prosperity rather than job loss 1 year: Harvey.ai becomes the pets.com of the AI boom -- and a harbinger of the coming bust (which becomes known as a Correction-like euphemism) 1 year: A prominent S1 has revalations of economic behavior that has an effect beyond the company's IPO 3 year: Frontier models treat AGI as "already done" -- and ASI as a non-goal 3 year: Custom-written software thrives in lieu of SaaS 6 year: DSM adds LLMs as a su…

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## Transcript

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