# Inflation Risk is the Wrong Recession Lesson

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/optimist-economy-7257068/inflation-risk-is-the-wrong-recession-lesson
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/optimist-economy-7257068/inflation-risk-is-the-wrong-recession-lesson.md
Podcast: [Optimist Economy](https://stenobird.com/podcast/optimist-economy-7257068)
Published: 2026-06-16T08:30:00+00:00
Episode link: https://play.prx.org/listen?ge=prx_14811_8c7fa140-5517-46ef-a546-b4cd27dc7ddb&uf=https%3A%2F%2Fpublicfeeds.net%2Ff%2F14811%2Ffeed-rss.xml
Audio file: https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/tracking.swap.fm/track/sblTq32fyWAjsHzze2LG/dovetail.prxu.org/14811/8c7fa140-5517-46ef-a546-b4cd27dc7ddb/260616_OE_221_Recessions_Final_Clean.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/optimist-economy-7257068/episodes/inflation-risk-is-the-wrong-recession-lesson
Duration seconds: 2978

## Resource

This might be the most dangerous economic assertion circulating today: the high inflation from 2021-2023 was caused by government stimulus. The talking point on the right goes: the third COVID-era stimulus checks landed in March 2021, prices took off, case closed. Of course reality is more nuanced. And most serious estimates pin only a point or two of the inflation peak on the bill; the rest was supply chain chaos, a global chip shortage, and the Ukraine war. The pandemic caused the worst job loss on record — and the response produced the fastest labor-market recovery we've ever had, because policymakers went big. The danger is that they remember the inflation and forget the recovery. Chapters : 00:01:14 Announcements 00:03:24 Retcon: Q1 GDP Revised 00:04:50 Terms & Conditions: Output Gap, NAIRU, "The Long Depression" 00:11:49 Big Pilcrow: Is Recession Recovery Getting Blamed for Inflation? 00:42:14 Executive Orders: Parallel parking licenses, FIFA ticketing ban 00:45:52 Spiritual Sponsors: Small hardware stores, handwritten letter to OE Support Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com/donate Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠ . We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠ @optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠ @optimist_economy . Or search for us on Facebook. Chat with Optimists on Substack. Hats, tees and totes: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Reach us at: optimist.economy@gmail.com

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