# 3572: The 4% Retirement Rule: Why You Can Plan but Not Predict by Chris Reining on Limits Of The 4% Rule

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/optimal-finance-daily-financial-independence-and-money-advice-879660/3572-the-4-retirement-rule-why-you-can-plan-but-not-predict-by-chris-reining-on-limits-of-the-4-rule
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/optimal-finance-daily-financial-independence-and-money-advice-879660/3572-the-4-retirement-rule-why-you-can-plan-but-not-predict-by-chris-reining-on-limits-of-the-4-rule.md
Podcast: [Optimal Finance Daily - Financial Independence and Money Advice](https://stenobird.com/podcast/optimal-finance-daily-financial-independence-and-money-advice-879660)
Published: 2026-05-25T07:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/OLD7774577537.mp3?updated=1778525287
Audio file: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/OLD7774577537.mp3?updated=1778525287
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Duration seconds: 555

## Resource

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3572: Chris Reining explains why retirement planning is less about predicting the future and more about preparing for uncertainty. Using the Apollo 13 disaster as a powerful analogy, he breaks down how the 4% rule was specifically designed to survive even the worst market conditions, while reminding readers that adaptability matters just as much as strategy. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://chrisreining.com/plan-predict/ Quotes to ponder: “It’s probably okay to use a higher initial withdrawal, but you use the rules because it’s impossible to predict how the future unfolds.” “The reason the 4% rule works during recessions is because the 4% rule is based on the worst possible historical scenarios.” “Withdrawing that initial 4% incorporates someone who retires on the cusp of some financial nightmare: the depression, dot-com bubble, recent recession.” Episode references: Michael Kitces on the 4% Rule: https://www.kitces.com/blog/monte-carlo-analysis-risk-fat-tails-vs-safe-withdrawal-rates-rolling-historical-returns/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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