# Will China's Strategic Bet on the Iranian Regime Pay Off?

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/one-decision-4241287/will-china-s-strategic-bet-on-the-iranian-regime-pay-off
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/one-decision-4241287/will-china-s-strategic-bet-on-the-iranian-regime-pay-off.md
Podcast: [One Decision](https://stenobird.com/podcast/one-decision-4241287)
Published: 2026-04-16T09:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://pdrl.fm/8d0c8d/traffic.megaphone.fm/LNM6070287270.mp3?updated=1776296909
Audio file: https://pdrl.fm/8d0c8d/traffic.megaphone.fm/LNM6070287270.mp3?updated=1776296909
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/one-decision-4241287/episodes/will-china-s-strategic-bet-on-the-iranian-regime-pay-off
Duration seconds: 2885

## Resource

The US has moved critical missile defenses and troops from East Asia to the Middle East. With America’s resources stretched thin, is this the ultimate strategic opportunity for China? Former UK Defence Secretary Sir Ben Wallace and Times Radio political editor Kate McCann sit down with former advisor to President Obama and Georgetown University Director of Asia Studies Evan Medeiros to explore what he calls China’s strategy of “calculated neutrality” – protecting Beijing’s economic interests while avoiding direct conflict with the United States. First, for In Brief, Sir Ben and Kate discuss the US’s thinking behind blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Lord George Robertson’s scathing critique of UK foreign policy, and whether Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s defeat signals the beginning of the end of “strong man” populist politics. Later, Medeiros examines China’s balancing of its economic interests in both Iran and the Gulf countries, China’s Iranian oil “loophole” via the UAE, and if the Iran war is deepening fractures in Western alliances, potentially upending the global rules-based order. In this episode: 02:05 – US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz 04:59 – Frustration amongst Gulf states 06:45 – UK Role, and Lord George Robertson’s warning to the UK 12:16 – Does Orban’s defeat signal the end of “strong man” politics? 15:39 – Evan Medeiros introduction 17:04 – Defining China’s “calculated neutrality” 18:28 – Is China above the fray of war? 19:32 – Balancing leverage with Iran and the Gulf states 24:03 – Is Beijing arming Iran? 27:45 – China’s Iranian oil loophole 28:54 – China: Displacing vs. replacing the US 32:25 – Why China avoids regional wars 36:54 – One Decision: China’s vision for a post-American world order 42:08 – Sir Ben and Kate discussion Hosted by Sir Be…

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