# How much luck do you need to win the World Cup?

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Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/more-or-less-867746/how-much-luck-do-you-need-to-win-the-world-cup.md
Podcast: [More or Less](https://stenobird.com/podcast/more-or-less-867746)
Published: 2026-07-18T04:00:00+00:00
Episode link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct998z
Audio file: http://open.live.bbc.co.uk/mediaselector/6/redir/version/2.0/mediaset/audio-nondrm-download-rss/proto/http/vpid/p0nzt9bg.mp3
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Duration seconds: 539

## Resource

As the 2026 World Cup approaches its end, what is the biggest factor in who wins? Is it extraordinary moments of attacking magic? Gritty defensive organisation? Or is it all just a question of luck and random chance? We look at how mathematicians and analysists make sense of chaos, xG and unpredictability in the beautiful game. If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk CONTRIBUTORS: Ian Graham, former Head of Research at Liverpool FC David Sumpter, Professor of Applied Mathematics at Uppsala University Luis Nunes Vicente, Mathematician at Lehigh University CREDITS: Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Josh McMinn Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Dave O'Neill Editor: Richard Vadon

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## Transcript

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