# Weighing Recession Probabilities

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/moody-s-talks-inside-economics-3677209/weighing-recession-probabilities
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/moody-s-talks-inside-economics-3677209/weighing-recession-probabilities.md
Podcast: [Moody's Talks - Inside Economics](https://stenobird.com/podcast/moody-s-talks-inside-economics-3677209)
Published: 2026-03-27T21:07:20+00:00
Episode link: https://moodys-talks-inside-economics.simplecast.com/episodes/weighing-recession-probabilities-prSpGU3Y
Audio file: https://afp-922722-injected.calisto.simplecastaudio.com/411a7612-6f84-4cde-a10a-44f7817d62ef/episodes/a8f14b67-89b8-4ba9-be21-0609591858d0/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=411a7612-6f84-4cde-a10a-44f7817d62ef&awEpisodeId=a8f14b67-89b8-4ba9-be21-0609591858d0&feed=4LZRim3c
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/moody-s-talks-inside-economics-3677209/episodes/weighing-recession-probabilities
Duration seconds: 2009

## Resource

Hostilities with Iran are entering their second month, and the damage to financial markets and the economy is mounting. The Inside Economics team and colleague, Shandor Whitcher, take up the question of what it all means for the prospects of recession. Shandor tells us about his prescient random forest model of the probability of recession starting in the next year, and it’s not encouraging. Odds are still less than half, but not by much, and the direction of travel is disconcerting.

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## Transcript

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