# Resilient or Fragile?

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/moody-s-talks-inside-economics-3677209/resilient-or-fragile
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/moody-s-talks-inside-economics-3677209/resilient-or-fragile.md
Podcast: [Moody's Talks - Inside Economics](https://stenobird.com/podcast/moody-s-talks-inside-economics-3677209)
Published: 2026-01-02T20:10:40+00:00
Episode link: https://moodys-talks-inside-economics.simplecast.com/episodes/resilient-or-fragile-9wS0yb2K
Audio file: https://afp-922722-injected.calisto.simplecastaudio.com/411a7612-6f84-4cde-a10a-44f7817d62ef/episodes/456bc2f0-8f9b-4e78-a41a-51c45d4e66cd/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=411a7612-6f84-4cde-a10a-44f7817d62ef&awEpisodeId=456bc2f0-8f9b-4e78-a41a-51c45d4e66cd&feed=4LZRim3c
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/moody-s-talks-inside-economics-3677209/episodes/resilient-or-fragile
Duration seconds: 2416

## Resource

The team reunites in 2026 and reflects on the economy's performance in 2025 and looks ahead to the New Year. Mark reviews the forecast accuracy for the past year and is surprised by the results. Mark and Cris quibble over how to characterize the economy in 2025, and the team shares its predictions for 2026, along with the probabilities of the base cases, upside, and downside forecasts.

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## Transcript

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