# Why Andy Constan Says The AI Bubble is in Earnings, Not Price

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/monetary-matters-with-jack-farley-7021905/why-andy-constan-says-the-ai-bubble-is-in-earnings-not-price
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/monetary-matters-with-jack-farley-7021905/why-andy-constan-says-the-ai-bubble-is-in-earnings-not-price.md
Podcast: [Monetary Matters with Jack Farley](https://stenobird.com/podcast/monetary-matters-with-jack-farley-7021905)
Published: 2026-05-16T13:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/EWWMN2420777031.mp3
Audio file: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/EWWMN2420777031.mp3
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Duration seconds: 2005

## Resource

Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm Monetary Matters is now streaming daily as part of Monitoring the Situation. Join us live on X and YouTube from 4 to 5 PM ET Monday through Friday @mtsituation for live interviews and analysis breaking down the market’s most important situations. This is recording of a recent live interview from MTS. Veteran macro trader Andy Constan joins Monetary Matters live on Monitoring the Situation to discuss why he has 100% confidence that AI stocks are in a bubble. The nuance though is that unlike most bubbles, where the bubble is in unsustainable prices with no earnings, this is a bubble in unsustainable earnings that will eventually fall and make the current somewhat reasonable prices look lofty in hindsight. Constan highlights metrics like the $400 billion in S&P 500 earnings expectations and the over 60% of that is supposed to accrue to AI winners, and argues that based on projected GDP growth that their simply “isn’t enough pie for all of the S&P 500 to eat” without it coming other very important areas of the economy. Follow Andy Constan on X: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Jack Farley on X: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Max Wiethe on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Earnings Bubble Thesis 01:22 Defining a Bubble Regime 04:02 Past Bubbles and Patterns 07:57 Why PE Looks Normal 08:57 GDP Pie Math Reality 13:06 Unlimited ETFs HFGM 15:23 AI ROI and Inflation Risks 18:34 Three Cohorts Funding Compute 23:36 What a Real Pop Looks Like 28:22 Timing and Investor Discipline 30:27 Trading It Collars Not Shorts 33:13 Closing and Sign Off

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