# Farming, Not Forecasting: Malcolm Shaw on Investing in Juniors without Predicting Commodity Prices

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/mining-stock-education-1396689/farming-not-forecasting-malcolm-shaw-on-investing-in-juniors-without-predicting-commodity-prices
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/mining-stock-education-1396689/farming-not-forecasting-malcolm-shaw-on-investing-in-juniors-without-predicting-commodity-prices.md
Podcast: [Mining Stock Education](https://stenobird.com/podcast/mining-stock-education-1396689)
Published: 2026-09-21T11:06:40+00:00
Episode link: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/farming-not-forecasting-malcolm-shaw-on-investing-in-juniors-without-predicting-commodity-prices--75277908
Audio file: https://api.spreaker.com/download/episode/75277908/2404546608_miningstockeducation_farming_not_forecasting.mp3
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Duration seconds: 2677

## Resource

Malcolm Shaw is a former geologist, sell-side analyst and hedge fund energy and mining investor. He is a proven junior resource stock picker and has invested for himself since the end of 2011. This is his first ever podcast interview. Malcolm keeps a low profile and grows his newsletter, The Circle, almost entirely by word of mouth. Bill and Malcolm first crossed paths on a due diligence call about five years ago. They cover Malcolm's path from Calgary geologist to Bay Street, why he doesn't try to call commodity prices, how he sizes and exits positions, and the stories behind his biggest winners and one current loser. In this MSE episode, Malcolm explains his rational approach to junior resource speculation. Listen and learn! 00:00 Intro 00:29 Meet Malcolm Shaw 01:09 From Geologist to Analyst 02:35 Sell Side vs Buy Side 04:05 Going Independent 05:38 Why Start a Newsletter 09:51 No Forecasting Just Positioning 13:36 Deal Flow and Watchlists 16:40 Holding Periods and Exits 18:56 Portfolio Construction and Big Bets 21:32 Tenaz Energy Case Study 26:19 Mining Winner Alpha Minerals 29:27 Developers and Production Plays 32:05 Marketing and Sector Allocation 34:22 Niche Metals and Competence 36:05 Network Driven Due Diligence 38:17 Biggest Loser Lessons Malcolm’s newsletter: https://www.thecircle.ca/ Sign up for our free newsletter and receive interview transcripts, stock profiles and investment ideas: http://eepurl.com/cHxJ39 Mining Stock Education (MSE) offers informational content based on available data but it does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. It may not be appropriate for all situations or objectives. Readers and listeners should seek professional advice, make independent investigations and assessments before investing. MSE does not guarantee the accu…

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