# Why does one major projection system have a low opinion of the Brewers? (02.23.2026)

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/milwaukee-brewers-microbrew-1117929/why-does-one-major-projection-system-have-a-low-opinion-of-the-brewers-02-23-2026
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/milwaukee-brewers-microbrew-1117929/why-does-one-major-projection-system-have-a-low-opinion-of-the-brewers-02-23-2026.md
Podcast: [Milwaukee Brewers Microbrew](https://stenobird.com/podcast/milwaukee-brewers-microbrew-1117929)
Published: 2026-02-23T11:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://audioboom.com/posts/8864583
Audio file: https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/audioboom.com/posts/8864583.mp3?modified=1771816016&sid=4904769&source=rss
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Duration seconds: 4569

## Resource

The Baseball Prospectus PECOTA rankings believe the Brewers will finish around .500 and well behind the Cubs. Even though the Brewers won 97 games last year and bring back a ton of the same players. So why does the projection system have such a relatively low opinion of the Brewers (and not for the first time)? Jonathan Judge, the modeling guru of the PECOTA rankings, stops by (31:30) to discuss what his projection system looks for, why it prefers the Cubs so much more than the Brewers, which players are poised for a surprising year (good and bad) and why the Brewers have been able to overperform these rankings in the past. But also, perhaps there's some reason for concern? Before that, Brewers reporter Todd Rosiak discusses the extension for manager Pat Murphy, the status of Trevor Megill in the context of the Milwaukee bullpen and what he's seen - if anything - through the first couple days of actual games. We also get an update on the Maryvale Cat, plus uniform takes!

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## Transcript

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