# Fed Cuts, Santa Rally, and Prediction Markets (EP. 19)

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/market-misfits-7113680/fed-cuts-santa-rally-and-prediction-markets-ep-19
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/market-misfits-7113680/fed-cuts-santa-rally-and-prediction-markets-ep-19.md
Podcast: [Market Misfits](https://stenobird.com/podcast/market-misfits-7113680)
Published: 2025-12-17T02:03:05+00:00
Episode link: https://marketmisfits.podbean.com/e/fed-cuts-santa-rally-and-prediction-markets-ep-19/
Audio file: https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/ecakkcbp8x4qeaxc/ep19audioonly.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/market-misfits-7113680/episodes/fed-cuts-santa-rally-and-prediction-markets-ep-19
Duration seconds: 2187

## Resource

Joe and Smiddy close out the year with a wide-ranging conversation on what’s really driving market flows post-Fed. With the AI narrative losing steam, tech rotation accelerating, and volatility picking up into VIX expiry and OPEX, they dig into the psychology behind positioning, the reality of a “Santa rally,” and why skew and vol structure are flashing caution. They also take a detour into the growing world of prediction markets — from political betting to crypto-fueled arbitrage — and reflect on what it says about risk-taking in today's environment. DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material discussed has been provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as legal or investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security or strategy. The investment strategy and themes discussed herein may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial situation. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable though its accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. All opinions expressed by anyone on the podcast are solely their own opinion.

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## Transcript

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