# "Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should Stop Funding It" by mabramov

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/lesswrong-curated-popular-5643401/forecasting-is-way-overrated-and-we-should-stop-funding-it-by-mabramov
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/lesswrong-curated-popular-5643401/forecasting-is-way-overrated-and-we-should-stop-funding-it-by-mabramov.md
Podcast: [LessWrong (Curated & Popular)](https://stenobird.com/podcast/lesswrong-curated-popular-5643401)
Published: 2026-04-26T05:30:26+00:00
Episode link: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2037297/episodes/19076678-forecasting-is-way-overrated-and-we-should-stop-funding-it-by-mabramov.mp3
Audio file: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2037297/episodes/19076678-forecasting-is-way-overrated-and-we-should-stop-funding-it-by-mabramov.mp3
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Duration seconds: 522

## Resource

Summary EA and rationalists got enamoured with forecasting and prediction markets and made them part of the culture, but this hasn’t proven very useful, yet it continues to receive substantial EA funding. We should cut it off. My Experience with Forecasting For a while, I was the number one forecaster on Manifold. This lasted for about a year until I stopped just over 2 years ago. To this day, despite quitting, I’m still #8 on the platform. Additionally, I have done well on real-money...

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## Transcript

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