# The Real Edge Is Not Predicting the War

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/less-noise-more-signal-7015424/the-real-edge-is-not-predicting-the-war
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/less-noise-more-signal-7015424/the-real-edge-is-not-predicting-the-war.md
Podcast: [Less Noise, More Signal](https://stenobird.com/podcast/less-noise-more-signal-7015424)
Published: 2026-04-23T16:00:28+00:00
Episode link: https://feeds.fountain.fm/Tkp8ve9N2p86ZGOVfvrw/items/RQrVty9x9pbuXE1F2XGq/files/VIDEO---DEFAULT---2f29fc87-2cd5-4281-9556-53a45b2db7fe.mp4/ORIGINAL.mp3
Audio file: https://feeds.fountain.fm/Tkp8ve9N2p86ZGOVfvrw/items/RQrVty9x9pbuXE1F2XGq/files/VIDEO---DEFAULT---2f29fc87-2cd5-4281-9556-53a45b2db7fe.mp4/ORIGINAL.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/less-noise-more-signal-7015424/episodes/the-real-edge-is-not-predicting-the-war
Duration seconds: 803

## Resource

▬▬▬ FULL EPISODE ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ https://youtu.be/icM1Kj6d4ac?si=W51JTl4RNS00HpsZ ▬▬▬ DISCUSSION ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ 💬Join the discussion on Telegram: https://t.me/+OgDv1Djbvs80M2Fk ▬▬▬ CLIP ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ In this clip, Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon explain why the real opportunity is not predicting the war itself, but understanding the second and third order effects of the oil shock. They walk through how higher oil prices flow into inflation, demand destruction, and eventually earnings pressure. The key message is that markets may still be underpricing the macro fallout. ▬▬▬ SUPPORT ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ ⚡️LNMS on Lightning: lnms@ln.mtpelerin.com ₿ BTC-Address: bc1qmk7gfdnrdegnmnrtnacj6rslan0y6v29kdlf9p 💵 https://donate.stripe.com/9B600k5Tscv … Twint: https://go.twint.ch/1/e/tw?tw=acq.Z7L … ▬▬▬ LINKS ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ 📰 LNMS Newsletter: https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack …. 🎧 LNMS on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4jfhr4zn 🎧 LNMS on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/4apksnyn 🎧 LNMS on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/ttha8kku 🎧 LNMS on Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/4k96c7tw 🎧 LNMS on Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/5dsbbj5p 🌐 LNMS Website: https://www.lessnoise-moresignal.com/ 📖 Bitcoin Book: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013 ▬▬▬ SOCIALS ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ Follow on X👉 https://x.com/pahueg Follow on Nostr 👉 https://primal.net/pascal Follow on LinkedIn 👉 / pascal-huegli

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## Transcript

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