# Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/horns-of-a-dilemma-697116/assessing-and-combating-overconfidence-among-2-000-national-security-officials
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/horns-of-a-dilemma-697116/assessing-and-combating-overconfidence-among-2-000-national-security-officials.md
Podcast: [Horns of a Dilemma](https://stenobird.com/podcast/horns-of-a-dilemma-697116)
Published: 2025-09-23T19:44:00+00:00
Episode link: https://hornsofadilemma.libsyn.com/assessing-and-combating-overconfidence-among-2000-national-security-officials
Audio file: https://traffic.libsyn.com/clean/secure/hornsofadilemma/Assessing_and_Combating_Overconfidence_Among_2000_National_Security_Officials-.m4a?dest-id=662418
Processing state: not_requested
JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/horns-of-a-dilemma-697116/episodes/assessing-and-combating-overconfidence-among-2-000-national-security-officials
Duration seconds: 2251

## Resource

Dr. Jeffrey Friedman, an associate professor at Dartmouth College, reveals striking findings that seasoned national security professionals often misjudge uncertainty. This overview of his latest TNSR article, "The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials," covers how minor training can improve decision-making accuracy and highlights the importance of structured feedback and better calibration in national security judgments.

## Actions

- request_transcript: `POST https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/horns-of-a-dilemma-697116/episodes/assessing-and-combating-overconfidence-among-2-000-national-security-officials/transcription-requests` — Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode.
- read_markdown: `GET https://stenobird.com/podcast/horns-of-a-dilemma-697116/assessing-and-combating-overconfidence-among-2-000-national-security-officials.md` — Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource.

A page view does not enqueue transcription. Agents should invoke `request_transcript` explicitly when they need this episode processed.

## Transcript

Full transcripts are not published on public pages unless there is a clear rights basis.