# Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/hard-fork/can-the-u-s-rein-in-prediction-markets-joanna-stern-on-her-year-of-a-i-experiments-our-producer-goes-to-attention-school
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/hard-fork/can-the-u-s-rein-in-prediction-markets-joanna-stern-on-her-year-of-a-i-experiments-our-producer-goes-to-attention-school.md
Podcast: [Hard Fork](https://stenobird.com/podcast/hard-fork)
Published: 2026-05-08T11:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://www.nytimes.com/column/hard-fork
Audio file: https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pfx.vpixl.com/6qj4J/pscrb.fm/rss/p/nyt.simplecastaudio.com/3e43d072-f8a5-430f-bc8e-4c70aafdf3c7/episodes/5b3e7cfd-6ad9-4a65-ba6d-bb467ca03293/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=3e43d072-f8a5-430f-bc8e-4c70aafdf3c7&awEpisodeId=5b3e7cfd-6ad9-4a65-ba6d-bb467ca03293&feed=l2i9YnTd
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Duration seconds: 4345

## Resource

The episode explores the regulatory tension surrounding prediction markets and the potential for insider trading to corrupt market integrity. It also features a deep dive into the real-world impact of AI through personal experimentation and a look at the movement to reclaim human attention.

## Highlights
- Main idea: Prediction markets face a crisis of legitimacy as concerns over manipulation and insider trading grow
- Practical takeaway: Using AI as a 'data calculator' can assist in risk assessment and complex planning
- Failure mode: Relying solely on AI for information can lead to a loss of human agency and critical judgment
- Main idea: The 'AI divide' is not just geographic but also demographic, affecting how different populations adopt new technology
- Practical takeaway: Reclaiming attention requires more than just putting phones away; it requires finding meaningful digital alternatives

## Topics

Prediction Markets, Artificial Intelligence, Insider Trading, Digital Attention, Technology Policy, AI Ethics, Human Agency, Digital Wellness

## Chapters
- 7:15 — The Integrity of Prediction Markets: An analysis of whether insider trading provides valuable information or simply destroys the fairness of prediction markets.
- 24:40 — The Impact of AI on Daily Life: Joanna Stern discusses how AI agents and models are beginning to reshape fundamental sectors like healthcare and transportation.
- 36:15 — AI as a Decision-Making Tool: Reflections on using AI as a sophisticated calculator to manage risks and execute complex plans.
- 41:55 — The Geographic and Gender Divide in AI: Exploring how AI adoption varies across different regions and demographics, from New York to the Midwest.
- 48:15 — The Rise of Attention School: A look into the intentional practice of training oneself to focus and find meaning in a hyper-distracted world.
- 1:11:30 — Reclaiming the Present Moment: Discussing the necessity of providing human-centric alternatives to digital addiction to foster true presence.

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## Transcript

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