# The Bad "Bet"

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/hacked-1089107/the-bad-bet
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/hacked-1089107/the-bad-bet.md
Podcast: [Hacked](https://stenobird.com/podcast/hacked-1089107)
Published: 2026-05-15T18:57:00+00:00
Episode link: https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/ADV5467253619.mp3?updated=1778818519
Audio file: https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/ADV5467253619.mp3?updated=1778818519
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/hacked-1089107/episodes/the-bad-bet
Duration seconds: 5332

## Resource

Or the very good bet, depending on how you think about it. In this episode, we start by discussing the strange, fast-moving world of prediction markets — platforms where you can bet real money on whether a head of state gets removed from power, whether a country gets invaded, whether the Fed raises rates — and where the prices themselves are supposed to be the point, a real-time probability signal generated by the crowd. Then we get to the case that just blew a very large hole in that theory: a Polymarket account called "Burdensome-Mix" that turned $33,000 into $409,881 in about a week, betting on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — and the active-duty Green Beret who allegedly made those trades while participating in the raid that made them pay out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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## Transcript

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