# What We Got Wrong About The World Cup (A LOT)

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/geopolitical-cousins-7251738/what-we-got-wrong-about-the-world-cup-a-lot
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/geopolitical-cousins-7251738/what-we-got-wrong-about-the-world-cup-a-lot.md
Podcast: [Geopolitical Cousins](https://stenobird.com/podcast/geopolitical-cousins-7251738)
Published: 2026-07-24T19:30:00+00:00
Episode link: https://geopolitical-cousins.captivate.fm/episode/what-we-got-wrong-about-the-world-cup-a-lot
Audio file: https://episodes.captivate.fm/episode/b8e079ad-ed93-4b07-97e5-f8c9c121a9a6.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/geopolitical-cousins-7251738/episodes/what-we-got-wrong-about-the-world-cup-a-lot
Duration seconds: 4942

## Resource

The cousins reconvene with the BCA brain trust - Juan Correa, Robert Tipper, and Jeremie Peloso - for the World Cup post-mortem. The model called all four semifinalists but missed champion Spain, so the crew litigates whether the winner's curse is dead, whether the GOAT variable was a methodological capitulation, and what Cape Verde, Norway, and Egypt say about the value of a center of gravity. Also on the docket: Trump's Balogun red-card intervention, the treatment of Iran's squad, a Paraguayan senator's meltdown, and why immigration keeps winning on the pitch. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Show Updates/Intro (00:39) - World Cup Recap Setup (02:02) - Guests And Agenda (05:34) - How The Model Works (11:21) - Winners Curse Debate (15:39) - Messi GOAT Argument (21:10) - Spain And Substitutions (26:16) - Model Tweaks Next Time (30:57) - World Cup Negatives (39:34) - VAR And Tournament Fatigue (43:25) - Substitution Rules Debate (47:25) - Stadium Atmosphere Problems (49:53) - Anthems Halftime Politics (54:24) - What We Loved Most (57:19) - America Production Spectacle (01:01:12) - Drama Violence Ticket Culture (01:09:34) - Soccer Narratives Magic (01:12:23) - Geopolitics On The Pitch (01:17:49) - Immigration Nation State (01:21:31) - Wrap Up And Next Tournaments -- Referenced in the Show: 2026 BCA World Cup Forecast - https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/most-important-all-unimportant-forecasts-3rd-edition-2026-world-cup-04-06-2026/219501?token=99a83421876851853383a4eb1118ddb9 -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around…

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