# The Second Derivative

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/geopolitical-cousins-7251738/the-second-derivative
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/geopolitical-cousins-7251738/the-second-derivative.md
Podcast: [Geopolitical Cousins](https://stenobird.com/podcast/geopolitical-cousins-7251738)
Published: 2026-06-01T17:45:00+00:00
Episode link: https://geopolitical-cousins.captivate.fm/episode/the-second-derivative
Audio file: https://episodes.captivate.fm/episode/1dbc25e5-cc2e-477c-a4c1-7387b882be5b.mp3
Processing state: not_requested
JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/geopolitical-cousins-7251738/episodes/the-second-derivative
Duration seconds: 5609

## Resource

The Strait of Hormuz is running out of runway - and so is the Trump administration's room to maneuver... The cousins unpack why oil inventories are the real ammunition in the Iran standoff, why markets keep hitting all-time highs despite closed shipping lanes, and what the AI economy's dominance says about the K-shaped world underneath. We close with NBA playoff predictions (duh) ahead of a Thunder-Spurs Game 7. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (00:28) - Weekend Hoops and Aging (02:09) - Travel Grind and Vivid Dream (04:23) - Tales From the Road Idea (05:18) - Iran Deal or No Deal (08:47) - Strait Tolls and Mixed Signals (11:20) - Gas Prices and $250 Bill Bit (13:59) - Communist Relics and Inflation Fears (18:16) - Why Markets Hit Highs (19:21) - Politics Versus Material Reality (27:54) - AI Boom Meets K Economy (32:15) - Fading Geopolitical Risk (40:34) - Second Derivative Thinking (47:02) - Savings Rate Double Click (48:46) - Savings Rate Psychology (51:09) - YOLO Trading Era (53:57) - Savings Floor Risks (55:46) - Summer Oil Squeeze (56:57) - Sticky Inflation Drivers (58:30) - Politics And The Fed (01:00:15) - Markets And War Signals (01:02:13) - Reflexivity In Geopolitics (01:06:17) - Nihilism And Truth (01:07:17) - Quick Hits USMCA Update (01:12:12) - Moon Race Concerns (01:15:35) - AI Data Centers In Space (01:17:43) - World Cup Preview (01:20:09) - Why World Cup Is Hard (01:25:31) - Game Seven Predictions (01:28:43) - LeBron Comparison Debate (01:32:28) - Final Spurs Call -- Referenced in the Show: -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He…

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