# Taco Tuesday

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/geopolitical-cousins-7251738/taco-tuesday
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/geopolitical-cousins-7251738/taco-tuesday.md
Podcast: [Geopolitical Cousins](https://stenobird.com/podcast/geopolitical-cousins-7251738)
Published: 2026-04-09T12:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://geopolitical-cousins.captivate.fm/episode/taco-tuesday
Audio file: https://episodes.captivate.fm/episode/a325306a-8bd6-4c43-817b-58baafbc8884.mp3
Processing state: not_requested
JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/geopolitical-cousins-7251738/episodes/taco-tuesday
Duration seconds: 4550

## Resource

Marko is unbothered by ceasefire hand-wringing. He argues the Strait of Hormuz traffic was already recovering before any deal — because Iran is rationally cashing in through a tolling mechanism, not risking its leverage. Jacob frets the deal's fragile and spoilers lurk. Elsewhere: KMT's Beijing trip signals Taiwan's shifting mood, eight Senate seats are suddenly in play, Trump's economy approval is a catastrophic 31%, and both cousins have quietly become Claude fanboys. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (00:38) - Listener Requests and Ethiopia Pivot (02:13) - Coffee Gifts and Khat Banter (04:06) - Ceasefire Headlines and Strait Tensions (05:03) - Why Ceasefires Rarely Hold (07:43) - Shipping Data and Iran Toll Booth (14:14) - Oil Flow Math and Alternatives (16:12) - Gulf States and Toll Compliance (18:32) - Markets React and Leverage Limits (22:41) - CapEx vs Flotilla and Spoilers (28:10) - US vs Israel Strike Capacity (31:15) - China Stakes and Supply Chains (38:03) - Zooming Out What Changed Long Term (39:05) - Energy Transit Logic (40:26) - Ceasefire Skepticism (41:40) - Missiles Not Blockades (42:40) - Beirut Strikes Fallout (43:22) - Ignoring Trump Noise (44:49) - US Forces Reality Check (47:58) - Oil Price Probabilities (49:39) - Taiwan Opposition Goes China (56:50) - Germany Negative Power Prices (59:38) - Trump Cabinet Shakeups (01:01:29) - Midterms Map In Play (01:08:24) - Sports Jokes And AI Shift (01:11:56) - Claude Changes Workflow (01:14:54) - Sally And Signoff -- Referenced in the Show: -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks…

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## Transcript

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