Episode
State of the Bitcoin Bear Market with Beimnet Abebe
- Podcast
- Galaxy Brains
- Published
- Feb 5, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 1740
- Processing state
not_requested- Canonical source
- https://traffic.megaphone.fm/GD7320323228.mp3?updated=1770934902
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Summary
Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy, speaks with Beimnet Abebe of Galaxy Trading, who previously warned that bitcoin was entering a bear phase. Abebe, a market strategist focused on macro and crypto structure, reiterates his view that bitcoin is likely to test its 200-week moving average near $60,000 amid deteriorating liquidity and weakening risk appetite. The discussion situates crypto within broader market stress. Abebe argues that equity momentum has stalled, software valuations are vulnerable to AI disruption, and marginal buyers are retreating. He points to cracks in the labor market, softer consumer sentiment, and rising odds of Fed cuts driven by employment weakness rather than renewed stimulus. Thorn challenges whether bitcoin’s failure to track gold undermines the “digital gold” thesis, while Abebe maintains that reflexivity and improved risk-reward at lower levels could reset positioning. What’s Happening Abebe frames the recent bitcoin drawdown as a structural breakdown, not a transient dip. Liquidity has thinned, sentiment has turned, and equities—particularly software and AI-exposed names—are repricing. He highlights slowing retail flows, de-dollarization pressures, and labor data signaling softness. The pair debate whether AI threatens software moats and how that repricing feeds into broader risk assets, including crypto. Why It Matters If equities correct further and labor weakens, the Fed’s dual mandate could tilt toward easing, altering fixed income and risk allocations. For bitcoin, a move toward the 200-week average would historically mark a value zone with asymmetric upside. The conversation underscores how tightly crypto remains linked to macro liquidity and equity sentiment. Key Takeaways • Bitcoin’s market structure has weakened, inc…