# Jason Miller, MSU | The Capacity Driven TL Cycle and the ROI of AI

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/freightvine-1032021/jason-miller-msu-the-capacity-driven-tl-cycle-and-the-roi-of-ai
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/freightvine-1032021/jason-miller-msu-the-capacity-driven-tl-cycle-and-the-roi-of-ai.md
Podcast: [Freightvine](https://stenobird.com/podcast/freightvine-1032021)
Published: 2026-06-25T11:00:00+00:00
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Duration seconds: 3383

## Resource

This week, Chris Caplice is joined by Dr. Jason Miller, Professor of Supply Chain Management at Michigan State University’s Eli Broad College of Business, for his fifth appearance on Freightvine. Chris and Jason break down why they believe the current truckload cycle began in December 2025, why it took a few months to confirm the shift, and why this expansion looks different from past freight cycles. In this conversation, they cover: Why this cycle appears to be supply-driven, not demand-driven What spot and contract rate spreads can tell us about market shifts How capacity exits, Class 8 orders, and routing guide failures are shaping the market Whether the AI boom can deliver real ROI or if the market is getting ahead of itself What Michigan’s logistics and supply chain work can tell us about manufacturing, food production, and trade If you’re trying to understand where truckload pricing, capacity, and freight demand may be headed next, this is a timely conversation with one of the industry’s sharpest data-driven voices. For previous episodes and to subscribe to our newsletter, visit: dat.com/podcast/freightvine Chapters 00:00 Introduction 02:55 Identifying the Current Truckload Cycle 04:16 Market Signals and Transition Points 05:53 Comparing Cycles: 2017-2018 vs. 2025 09:00 Supply vs. Demand Driven Cycles 12:15 Routing Guide Compliance and Market Dynamics 16:15 Spot vs. Contract Rates: Current Trends 20:38 Economic Factors Influencing Freight Rates 22:47 AI and Memory Chip Demand: Future Implications 26:10 The Future of AI and Profitability 27:23 Electricity Infrastructure and AI's Role 29:03 The Cost of AI and Model Maintenance 31:28 AI's Impact on Labor and Employment 34:04 AI in Academia and Content Creation 38:04 The Economics of AI and Cost Structures 45:33 Logi…

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