# Year 2 Breakouts in Fantasy Football: Can a Model Predict Who Actually Pays Off? (Feat. Alex Cupps)

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/fantasy-life-show-5672947/year-2-breakouts-in-fantasy-football-can-a-model-predict-who-actually-pays-off-feat-alex-cupps
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/fantasy-life-show-5672947/year-2-breakouts-in-fantasy-football-can-a-model-predict-who-actually-pays-off-feat-alex-cupps.md
Podcast: [Fantasy Life Show](https://stenobird.com/podcast/fantasy-life-show-5672947)
Published: 2026-08-18T10:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pscrb.fm/rss/p/https://mgln.ai/e/p667665/pscrb.fm/rss/p/traffic.megaphone.fm/NLLWS8667771632.mp3
Audio file: https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pscrb.fm/rss/p/https://mgln.ai/e/p667665/pscrb.fm/rss/p/traffic.megaphone.fm/NLLWS8667771632.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/fantasy-life-show-5672947/episodes/year-2-breakouts-in-fantasy-football-can-a-model-predict-who-actually-pays-off-feat-alex-cupps
Duration seconds: 3299

## Resource

Last year Ashton Jeanty finished as the RB15 at 14.4 PPR points per game. You drafted him as the RB6. This year he's going as the RB7 or RB8 — so you're paying nearly the same price for a player who hasn't yet paid it off. Kendall Valenzuela and Peter Overzet are joined by Fantasy Life's Alex Cupps, who built a model that predicts second-year breakouts. Alex explains what the CUPPS Score actually measures, what goes into it and how accurate it's been historically — in sixty seconds or less — and then they run nine of his favorite year-two players at their current ADPs.Jeanty goes first, and his closest historical comps include Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs and Breece Hall alongside considerably less encouraging names like Javonte Williams and Kerryon Johnson. From there it's Cam Skattebo, Bhayshul Tuten, Harold Fannin, Travis Hunter, Oronde Gadsden, Terrance Ferguson and the Titans' second-year receiver room with Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor.Every player gets the same treatment: the model's closest comps, what those comps actually did in year two, and the median points per game that group produced. Some of these numbers are a lot higher than the market price. Some are a lot lower. If you've been guessing on which sophomores are worth the pick, this replaces the guess with a comp set. Topics in this video: 2026 fantasy football, second year breakouts, fantasy football breakouts, CUPPS Score, Alex Cupps model, Ashton Jeanty, Cam Skattebo, Bhayshul Tuten, Harold Fannin, Travis Hunter, Oronde Gadsden, Terrance Ferguson, Chimere Dike, Elic Ayomanor, fantasy football draft strategy, fantasy football sleepers, ADP, running back rankings, tight end rankings, fantasy football rankings Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.…

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