# We Asked Vanguard’s Chief Economist Why AI Has Two Huge Tails — And Which One Wins

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655/we-asked-vanguard-s-chief-economist-why-ai-has-two-huge-tails-and-which-one-wins
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655/we-asked-vanguard-s-chief-economist-why-ai-has-two-huge-tails-and-which-one-wins.md
Podcast: [Excess Returns](https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655)
Published: 2026-06-09T11:50:35+00:00
Episode link: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/excess-returns/episodes/We-Asked-Vanguards-Chief-Economist-Why-AI-Has-Two-Huge-Tails--And-Which-One-Wins-e3kht7m
Audio file: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/APO1644376382.mp3
Processing state: not_requested
JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/excess-returns-902655/episodes/we-asked-vanguard-s-chief-economist-why-ai-has-two-huge-tails-and-which-one-wins
Duration seconds: 2906

## Resource

AI could become the next general purpose technology, reshaping economic growth, inflation, interest rates and portfolio construction. Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis joins Excess Returns to explain why AI, demographics, fiscal deficits and globalization may define the next decade for investors, and why the biggest market winners may eventually come from outside the technology sector. Coming into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments https://amzn.to/4v8L7Of Vanguard Megatrends Research Hub https://explore.vanguard.com/megatrends.html Topics Covered: AI as a potential general purpose technology Why long-term megatrends can affect short-term market returns The four forces shaping the next decade: technology, demographics, deficits and globalization Why Vanguard believes AI could lift U.S. growth above consensus How AI could offset aging demographics and rising debt Why great technology cycles often include major stock market drawdowns The difference between AI automation, augmentation and new industry creation Why the next AI winners may be in healthcare, financial services and other service industries The risk that AI disappoints and fiscal deficits dominate the outlook How tariffs, oil prices and AI investment interact in the macro outlook What AI could mean for 60/40 portfolios, value stocks, fixed income and international markets Joe Davis’ lesson for average investors: the power of compounding Timestamps: 00:00 Why every great technology eventually faces a market drawdown 04:28 The four megatrends shaping the economy 08:56 How megatrends explain short-term S&P 500 moves 13:22 Why AI may be in the 1996 or 1997 stage 18:29 Where the next AI winners could emerge 21:44 AI, fiscal deficits and the danger of kicking the can 26:17 Why 2…

## Actions

- request_transcript: `POST https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/excess-returns-902655/episodes/we-asked-vanguard-s-chief-economist-why-ai-has-two-huge-tails-and-which-one-wins/transcription-requests` — Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode.
- read_markdown: `GET https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655/we-asked-vanguard-s-chief-economist-why-ai-has-two-huge-tails-and-which-one-wins.md` — Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource.

A page view does not enqueue transcription. Agents should invoke `request_transcript` explicitly when they need this episode processed.

## Transcript

Full transcripts are not published on public pages unless there is a clear rights basis.