# The Forever Invariable Truth | Jim Grant on War, Inflation, and What Comes Next

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Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655/the-forever-invariable-truth-jim-grant-on-war-inflation-and-what-comes-next.md
Podcast: [Excess Returns](https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655)
Published: 2026-04-13T13:05:37+00:00
Episode link: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/excess-returns/episodes/The-Forever-Invariable-Truth--Jim-Grant-on-War--Inflation--and-What-Comes-Next-e3hqu9s
Audio file: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/APO8444234605.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/excess-returns-902655/episodes/the-forever-invariable-truth-jim-grant-on-war-inflation-and-what-comes-next
Duration seconds: 3800

## Resource

This episode features Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer on inflation, war, monetary policy, and the long arc of credit cycles. Grant explains why inflation is ultimately driven by monetary debasement and why war, fiscal policy, and central bank actions may be setting the stage for a more persistent inflationary regime than markets expect. We explore how today’s environment compares to past inflationary periods, the hidden risks in credit markets and public debt, and what history teaches us about AI investment booms, oil shocks, and monetary disruption. Grant also discusses trust in financial systems, the role of gold, and why markets are always harder in real time than they appear in hindsight. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer https://www.grantspub.com/ Topics Covered: Why war is inherently inflationary and how it strains the productive economy The difference between measured economic stability and underlying systemic risks How inflation shifted from a wartime phenomenon to a permanent feature of modern monetary policy The Fed’s 2% inflation target as a structural form of currency debasement Lessons from the 1970s inflation and oil shocks vs. today’s environment Why inflation is a ratchet that erodes purchasing power over time The importance of trust in credit markets and growing risks in private credit structures Public debt, Treasury market dynamics, and early signs of strain in government financing Historical parallels between AI investment and past technological booms like the internet The role of gold as a hedge against (and investment in) monetary instability The durability of the US dollar despite long-term structural concerns Why investing is always difficult in the present—even when it looks obvious in hindsight Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and Jim Grant on…

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## Transcript

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