# The AI Trade, the Fed and the Next Phase of the Bull Market | Warren Pies

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655/the-ai-trade-the-fed-and-the-next-phase-of-the-bull-market-warren-pies
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655/the-ai-trade-the-fed-and-the-next-phase-of-the-bull-market-warren-pies.md
Podcast: [Excess Returns](https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655)
Published: 2026-07-02T08:54:58+00:00
Episode link: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/excess-returns/episodes/The-AI-Trade--the-Fed-and-the-Next-Phase-of-the-Bull-Market--Warren-Pies-e3lib5s
Audio file: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/APO4589470804.mp3
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Duration seconds: 3330

## Resource

Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins Excess Returns to break down the AI bull market, the macro risks investors should watch, and why the data still supports continued strength in semiconductors and equities. We discuss GPU demand, token usage, open source AI, Fed policy, housing weakness, oil, earnings growth, market valuations and the biggest risks to the current cycle. Warren Pies on X https://x.com/WarrenPies 3Fourteen Research https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/ Caliban https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/caliban Main topics covered Which bearish AI arguments actually matter for investors Why regulatory risk may be the biggest long-term AI concern How data center spending is crowding out housing investment Why the Fed may struggle to cool AI-driven investment without hurting the labor market What GPU availability says about real-time AI compute demand Why open source AI is not yet replacing frontier models How token pricing and OpenRouter data help measure AI usage Why semiconductor stocks may still be in the middle of a major cycle How semis are being valued differently than traditional cyclicals Why Fed policy, earnings growth and market multiples are key to the second half of 2026 What oil positioning and refined product inventories say about macro risk Why 3Fourteen remains constructive on equities despite rising overheating risk Timestamps 00:00 Intro 01:04 Which bearish AI arguments have teeth? 04:00 Why AI regulation is the biggest long-term risk 07:03 Technology spending versus housing investment 11:03 How AI CapEx is showing up in inflation data 13:04 Why the labor market is more fragile than headline jobs data suggests 16:24 Why GPU availability is a cleaner signal than CapEx announcements 21:00 What token pricing and OpenRouter data reveal about AI dema…

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