# Lessons from Investing Through Bubble Regimes with Andy Constan

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655/lessons-from-investing-through-bubble-regimes-with-andy-constan
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655/lessons-from-investing-through-bubble-regimes-with-andy-constan.md
Podcast: [Excess Returns](https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655)
Published: 2026-05-14T00:10:36+00:00
Episode link: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/excess-returns/episodes/Lessons-from-Investing-Through-Bubble-Regimes-with-Andy-Constan-e3jba2o
Audio file: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/APO6639938366.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/excess-returns-902655/episodes/lessons-from-investing-through-bubble-regimes-with-andy-constan
Duration seconds: 3876

## Resource

First Principles with Andy Constan launches with a deep dive into market bubbles, AI, semiconductor stocks, and the financial conditions that can turn powerful technological change into a dangerous investment regime. Andy explains how bubbles form, why they are almost impossible to time, how today’s AI boom compares to past episodes like 1987, the dot-com bubble, housing, and the bond bubble, and what investors should watch as expectations, financing, and FOMO build. Andy Constan on X https://x.com/dampedspring Damped Spring Advisors https://dampedspring.com/ Topics covered: Why bubbles are easy to identify in hindsight but nearly impossible to define in real time The difference between an expensive market and a true bubble regime How new technologies, easy money, regulation, and exogenous shocks can create bubble conditions Why AI may rhyme with the internet boom without being an exact repeat The role of ChatGPT, Microsoft’s OpenAI investment, and semiconductor earnings expectations What the 1987 crash, Japan, housing, bonds, and dot-com bubble can teach investors today Why human nature, FOMO, and “keeping up with the Joneses” make bubbles so powerful How the late-1990s Fed response to Long-Term Capital Management helped fuel the final phase of the tech bubble Why tech’s current size in the economy and market may limit how far the AI boom can grow How AI capex, hyperscaler spending, buybacks, debt issuance, and IPO supply could determine what happens next Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and the challenge of identifying bubbles 04:32 Expensive markets vs true bubble regimes 09:57 The five bubble episodes Andy compares to today 14:35 Root conditions, escalation events, and the peaking phase 19:20 Why the 1987 crash may also have been a bubble 24:25 The late-1990s setup and the…

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