# He Quantified 200 Years of Disruption | Kai Wu on Separating Software Survivors from Value Traps

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655/he-quantified-200-years-of-disruption-kai-wu-on-separating-software-survivors-from-value-traps
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655/he-quantified-200-years-of-disruption-kai-wu-on-separating-software-survivors-from-value-traps.md
Podcast: [Excess Returns](https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655)
Published: 2026-06-02T16:26:10+00:00
Episode link: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/excess-returns/episodes/He-Quantified-200-Years-of-Disruption--Kai-Wu-on-Separating-Software-Survivors-from-Value-Traps-e3k85uo
Audio file: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/APO7900870700.mp3
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Duration seconds: 3836

## Resource

Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to break down his latest research on AI disruption, software stocks, value traps, and intangible moats. We discuss why software valuations have collapsed, why traditional value investing can fail during technological disruption, and how investors can separate potential AI winners from companies whose business models may be permanently impaired. AI Disruption: Moats and Value Traps https://www.sparklinecapital.com/post/ai-disruption Kai Wu on X https://x.com/ckaiwu Sparkline Capital https://www.sparklinecapital.com/ Topics Covered: Why software stocks are trading at a historically unusual discount to the market How AI disruption can create both real opportunities and dangerous value traps Why Blockbuster, Borders, RadioShack and newspapers offer lessons for today’s software selloff How patent data and natural language processing can measure technological disruption Why disruption has helped explain the poor performance of traditional value investing Why value investing may still work in sectors insulated from technological change How intangible assets like brand, human capital, intellectual property and network effects can protect companies Why Walmart and The New York Times survived disruption while other incumbents did not How David Teece’s complementary assets framework applies to AI, software and moats Why AI adoption and intangible value together may help identify software survivors Why high dispersion in disruption-scare stocks creates a potential opportunity for stock pickers Timestamps: 00:00 Software stocks now trade at a historic discount 04:26 What makes a cheap stock a value trap 08:25 Measuring disruption using patents, filings and natural language processing 13:23 Is AI the biggest disruptive wave in history…

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