# 4% Inflation. Stretched Valuations. Why Is the Market Still Risk-On? | Tian Yang

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655/4-inflation-stretched-valuations-why-is-the-market-still-risk-on-tian-yang
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655/4-inflation-stretched-valuations-why-is-the-market-still-risk-on-tian-yang.md
Podcast: [Excess Returns](https://stenobird.com/podcast/excess-returns-902655)
Published: 2026-08-06T14:43:40+00:00
Episode link: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/excess-returns/episodes/4-Inflation--Stretched-Valuations--Why-Is-the-Market-Still-Risk-On---Tian-Yang-e3n2fa0
Audio file: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/APO2814939307.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/excess-returns-902655/episodes/4-inflation-stretched-valuations-why-is-the-market-still-risk-on-tian-yang
Duration seconds: 3575

## Resource

Tian Yang, head of research at Variant Perception and portfolio manager of the VPX ETF, explains how investors can use adaptive leading indicators, capital cycle analysis and behavioral signals to navigate a market shaped by AI spending, inflation and government intervention. He breaks down why the macro backdrop remains risk-on, what would signal a true market top, why a Federal Reserve rate hike may still be unlikely and how AI could reshape profits, jobs and portfolio construction. Variant Perception https://www.variantperception.com/ Variant Perception Cycle Aware US Equity ETF https://etf.variantperception.com/ Topics covered How first-principles thinking separates causal signals from noisy data Why static recession indicators and consumer sentiment have become less reliable How Variant Perception combines growth, inflation, policy and liquidity into a Macro Risk Indicator Why AI capital spending and low savings rates are supporting economic resilience How AI profits could broaden from hardware bottlenecks to adopters and complementary assets Why the sovereign technology race may extend the AI investment cycle What savings rates, liquidity, leverage and cash settlement reveal about recessions and market tops How potential SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI supply could affect public equity markets What capital cycle and crowding signals say about semiconductors and hyperscalers Why headline inflation may stay high without creating persistent core inflation How the K-shaped consumer, labor market and Federal Reserve reform shape the policy outlook How AI could widen economic inequality, compress wages and change investment research How the VPX ETF uses adaptive sector tilts, stock selection and active risk Timestamps 00:00 First principles, causal data and leading indica…

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## Transcript

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