# Why the Fed Is Watching CPI Break Even More Closely

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/economic-indicators-with-fexingo-gdp-cpi-pmi-and-reading-the-macro-data-7871725/why-the-fed-is-watching-cpi-break-even-more-closely
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/economic-indicators-with-fexingo-gdp-cpi-pmi-and-reading-the-macro-data-7871725/why-the-fed-is-watching-cpi-break-even-more-closely.md
Podcast: [Economic Indicators with Fexingo: GDP, CPI, PMI, and Reading the Macro Data](https://stenobird.com/podcast/economic-indicators-with-fexingo-gdp-cpi-pmi-and-reading-the-macro-data-7871725)
Published: 2026-07-09T18:10:30+00:00
Episode link: https://audio.fexingo.com/business/economic-indicators/episode-0104.mp3
Audio file: https://audio.fexingo.com/business/economic-indicators/episode-0104.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/economic-indicators-with-fexingo-gdp-cpi-pmi-and-reading-the-macro-data-7871725/episodes/why-the-fed-is-watching-cpi-break-even-more-closely
Duration seconds: 362

## Resource

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed has shifted its focus from headline CPI to the 10-year breakeven inflation rate as a better gauge of long-run inflation expectations. Using the latest data from July 2026—where breakevens have held steady at 2.25% while CPI ticked up to 334.0—they explain how this metric filters out transitory noise and signals whether the market trusts the Fed's path. The hosts also connect breakevens to the puzzling jobs market, where payrolls rose just 57,000 yet the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%. With the yield curve steepening and capacity utilization inching up, they debate whether the economy is in a soft landing or a false calm. A focused, number-driven conversation for anyone who wants to read the macro data like a professional. #Fed #Inflation #BreakevenRate #CPI #10YearTreasury #MonetaryPolicy #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #SoftLanding #JobsReport #Unemployment #YieldCurve #CapacityUtilization #Powell #FOMC #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

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