# Even 0.1% P(Doom) Is Unacceptable — World-Class Coder Casey Muratori

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/doom-debates-6934136/even-0-1-p-doom-is-unacceptable-world-class-coder-casey-muratori
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/doom-debates-6934136/even-0-1-p-doom-is-unacceptable-world-class-coder-casey-muratori.md
Podcast: [Doom Debates!](https://stenobird.com/podcast/doom-debates-6934136)
Published: 2026-06-25T17:02:00+00:00
Episode link: https://lironshapira.substack.com/p/even-01-pdoom-is-unacceptable-world
Audio file: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/203483686/067a35fedf5b89c6a06bf071d00e74e3.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/doom-debates-6934136/episodes/even-0-1-p-doom-is-unacceptable-world-class-coder-casey-muratori
Duration seconds: 5843

## Resource

Casey Muratori is one of the top programming educators on YouTube, with a four-decade career building videogames and popular videogame software. We cover his positions on crypto, programming, AI’s impact on programming, and whether he takes the AI doom threat seriously. Casey’s instinct is to break technology down like an engineer until he knows exactly how it’ll operate. Does that approach break down in the modern AI paradigm? This is a ride on the Doom Train™ that lands on a wholly unexpected destination. Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:31 — Introducing Casey Muratori 00:02:07 — Recap of Crypto Series: Is Crypto Dead? 00:11:46 — On Programming & Why Coding Agents Don't Faze Casey 00:18:51 — Coding Is a Craft: Drum Machine Example 00:36:24 — Pivoting to AI: Can We Forecast Its Capabilities? 00:43:36 — Debating if AI Can Acquire Taste 00:54:59 — What's Your P(Doom)™? 01:04:11 — Even 0.1% X-Risk Is Unacceptable 01:07:34 — Modeling Uncertainty: Bayesianism vs "Tie Goes to the Catastrophe" 01:09:34 — Is This Pascal's Wager? 01:17:12 — Casey's (Cynical) Mainline Scenario 01:24:22 — Would You Un-Invent the Internet? 01:27:18 — Let's Ride the Doom Train 🚂 01:27:51 — Can AI Become Ridiculously Powerful? 01:29:11 — Will AI Preserve Humanity (Orthogonality Thesis)? 01:32:26 — Will AI Seek Power (Instrumental Convergence)? 01:36:06 — Wrap-Up Links Casey’s podcast, Wading Through AI (with Demetri Spanos) — https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEMXAbCVnmY6U_pA-7GKuP9xiv9utLaP4 Casey’s YouTube channel, Molly Rocket — https://www.youtube.com/@MollyRocket @cmuratori (Casey Muratori) on X — https://x.com/cmuratori Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the miss…

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