# #194 - What Will Be The Bottom For BTC?

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/crypto-collective-6842291/194-what-will-be-the-bottom-for-btc
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/crypto-collective-6842291/194-what-will-be-the-bottom-for-btc.md
Podcast: [Crypto Collective](https://stenobird.com/podcast/crypto-collective-6842291)
Published: 2026-07-21T08:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://crypto-collective.captivate.fm
Audio file: https://episodes.captivate.fm/episode/cb87f252-cdfd-426f-9a0a-fa938fbe2d73.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/crypto-collective-6842291/episodes/194-what-will-be-the-bottom-for-btc
Duration seconds: 2193

## Resource

Build sovereign wealth, join Australia’s Fastest Growing FREE crypto community 👉 https://www.skool.com/matthewfraser 🔗 TAKE ACTION: Borrow against Bitcoin (no selling): https://learn.ledn.io/collective Australia's #1 Crypto Exchange: https://coinstash.com.au/auth/signup?a=cryptocollective Secure your Bitcoin: https://bit.ly/TheBitcoinWay-Schedule-a-Call Sponsorships/Collabs: hey@vibezcreative.com Join the Hard Money Room: https://www.skool.com/the-hard-money-room/about?ref=ada9802add0e4e5386115475e7e3848c In this new episode, Matthew sits down with Joe Consorti, the head of growth at Thayer and one of the few macro analysts who accurately mapped the 2022 Bitcoin bottom, to unpack why Bitcoin’s current drop isn’t signalling what most retail investors think it is. What you’ll learn: ◼️ Why Bitcoin bottoms take time and how the 12–16 month cycle window works ◼️ The importance of the 200‑week moving average and why BTC often finds its floor within 5–10% of it ◼️ How whales, long‑term holders and ETFs are signalling that the bottom is close ◼️ Why smart money increases accumulation before the bottom, not at the exact low ◼️ The strategy Joe recommends for navigating volatility with confidence Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:01:02 - Is the Bitcoin Low In? 00:01:13 - Factors Influencing Bitcoin Bottoms 00:02:06 - Timing the Bitcoin Bottom 00:02:37 - 200-Week Moving Average 00:03:09 - Historical Context of Bitcoin Bottoms 00:04:02 - Impact of FTX Collapse 00:04:49 - Potential for Another Leg Down 00:05:00 - Four-Year Cycle and Bitcoin Halving 00:06:17 - Supply Shock and Market Psychology 00:07:09 - Predictability of Bitcoin Cycles 00:08:32 - Long-Term Holder Realized Price 00:09:25 - Smart Money and Long-Term Holders 00:10:53 - Historical Ranging Periods 00:12:07 - Expe…

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## Transcript

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