# Seems Like a Bad Idea

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/cheap-talk-6049769/seems-like-a-bad-idea
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/cheap-talk-6049769/seems-like-a-bad-idea.md
Podcast: [Cheap Talk](https://stenobird.com/podcast/cheap-talk-6049769)
Published: 2026-04-02T22:01:51+00:00
Episode link: https://www.jkaplow.net/cheaptalk/2026/4/2/seems-like-a-bad-idea
Audio file: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/51c381dde4b0c32cc8284816/t/69cee699d660e114a86331a9/1775167159191/CheapTalkS6E22+-+Prediction+Markets.mp3
Processing state: not_requested
JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/cheap-talk-6049769/episodes/seems-like-a-bad-idea
Duration seconds: 3355

## Resource

How Russia benefits from the Iran war; President Trump’s recent statements about how the war is going; China is both helped by and hurt by the Iran war; prediction markets as an aggregation mechanism for the wisdom of crowds; insider trading and insider influence; the characteristics of wise crowds; and Marcus will never make that mistake again The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop . Further Reading: Will Oremus and Jeremy B. Merrill. 2026. “A journalist reported a missile strike. Then came the death threats.” Washington Post. See all Cheap Talk episodes

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## Transcript

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