# Vita Coco Stock: It CRUSHED Earnings and RAISED Guidance — So Why We Say HOLD

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/vita-coco-stock-it-crushed-earnings-and-raised-guidance-so-why-we-say-hold
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/vita-coco-stock-it-crushed-earnings-and-raised-guidance-so-why-we-say-hold.md
Podcast: [Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia](https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792)
Published: 2026-07-24T13:50:44+00:00
Episode link: https://chargedalpha.podbean.com/e/vita-coco-stock-it-crushed-earnings-and-raised-guidance-%e2%80%94-so-why-we-say-hold/
Audio file: https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/6cpw1hiq4ql2pjdk/audio_u.mp3
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Duration seconds: 862

## Resource

The Vita Coco Company (COCO) Q2 2026 — The Vita Coco Company (COCO), the #1 coconut-water brand, reported a blowout Q2 2026: EPS of $0.82 crushed the ~$0.55 estimate (+116% YoY) on net sales of $216M (+28%), gross margin of 49% (vs 36% a year ago), and adjusted EBITDA of $67M (+$38M). Management RAISED full-year 2026 guidance (net sales $790–805M, adjusted EBITDA $154–161M) and announced the $175M acquisition of super-premium coconut-water maker Copra. Yet the stock gapped up over 7% at the open and then faded all day to close down ~6.8% at ~$69. The catch: ~700bps of that 49% gross margin came from one-time tariff refunds, ocean freight (the key margin swing factor) is cyclically low, and after roughly tripling off its $32 low the stock trades ~24x EV/EBITDA and ~38x earnings. Our owner-earnings DCF lands fair value near $62 — below the price. Our call: HOLD, 3/5. The Vita Coco Company is the little brand that built the modern coconut-water category — and it's still the #1 brand in the U.S. and globally, an asset-light, net-cash, founder-led compounder growing fast. Q2 2026 was a blowout on the headline: EPS of $0.82 crushed the ~$0.55 estimate (+116% YoY), net sales rose 28% to $216M, gross margin jumped to 49% from 36%, adjusted EBITDA rose $38M to $67M, and management RAISED full-year guidance (net sales $790–805M, adj EBITDA $154–161M) while announcing a $175M deal for super-premium Copra. So why did the stock gap up 7% and then fade to close down ~7%? Because the beat was partly borrowed. Management disclosed that ~700 basis points of the 49% gross margin came from one-time tariff refunds — strip them out and underlying margin was ~42%. The rest leaned on cyclically low ocean freight, the single biggest swing factor in Vita Coco's margin. Underneath, demand is re…

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