# Vista Energy Stock (VIST): EBITDA Nearly DOUBLED — So Why the ’Miss’? (Q2 2026)

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/vista-energy-stock-vist-ebitda-nearly-doubled-so-why-the-miss-q2-2026
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/vista-energy-stock-vist-ebitda-nearly-doubled-so-why-the-miss-q2-2026.md
Podcast: [Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia](https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792)
Published: 2026-07-18T01:54:13+00:00
Episode link: https://chargedalpha.podbean.com/e/vista-energy-stock-vist-ebitda-nearly-doubled-%e2%80%94-so-why-the-miss-q2-2026/
Audio file: https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/0pj7c0d08skwvoya/audio_7.mp3
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Duration seconds: 851

## Resource

Vista Energy (VIST) Q2 2026 — Vista Energy (VIST) reported Q2 2026 (Jul 16): total revenue ~$1.21B (+89% YoY); adjusted EBITDA $805M (+99% YoY) at a 70% margin; production 156,061 boe/d (+32% YoY, ~87% oil), oil 135,427 bbl/d (+33%); realized oil $89.4/bbl (+44% YoY) at a $4.5/boe lifting cost. Reported EPS was $3.0 (+37% YoY, flattered by an acquisition gain), but ADJUSTED EPS of $2.38 MISSED the ~$3.15 consensus - the shortfall was below-the-line, as D,D&A jumped 53% to $271M and taxes doubled while Vista consolidated the Equinor (Bandurria Sur / Bajo del Toro) assets acquired in May. Capex $467M; free cash flow $491M ex-acquisition. Net debt $3.06B; net leverage 1.41x (1.25x pro forma), targeting ~1.0x by year-end. Guidance: ~158k boe/d for 2026 (Q4 ramping toward ~170k) and ~$3.0B adjusted EBITDA at $85 Brent (+/- ~$200M per $10/bbl). The stock is ~$64, about 21% below its $81 high. Our EV/EBITDA work (4x 2026E EBITDA, with a deliberate Argentina discount) lands fair value ~$80. Wall Street: unanimous Buy (6/0/0), ~$85 average target. Our call: BUY, 3/5. Vista Energy is an Argentine oil producer and essentially a pure-play on Vaca Muerta - one of the best shale basins outside the U.S. In Q2 2026 the headline looked like a miss: adjusted EPS of $2.38 landed well short of the ~$3.15 consensus, and yet the operational quarter was a blowout - production up 32% to 156,061 boe/d, revenue up 89%, and adjusted EBITDA up 99% to $805M at a 70% margin. The 'miss' was below the line: reported EPS was actually $3.0 (up 37%, helped by an acquisition gain), but adjusted earnings were dragged by a 53% jump in depreciation (to $271M) and a doubling of taxes as Vista consolidated the Equinor assets (Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro) it acquired in May - the accounting cost of sca…

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