# UNH Stock: UnitedHealth Crushed Earnings and Raised Guidance — Is the Crisis Over?

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/unh-stock-unitedhealth-crushed-earnings-and-raised-guidance-is-the-crisis-over
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/unh-stock-unitedhealth-crushed-earnings-and-raised-guidance-is-the-crisis-over.md
Podcast: [Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia](https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792)
Published: 2026-07-17T15:10:12+00:00
Episode link: https://chargedalpha.podbean.com/e/unh-stock-unitedhealth-crushed-earnings-and-raised-guidance-%e2%80%94-is-the-crisis-over/
Audio file: https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/oqos1jxd71qgwtq7/audio_w.mp3
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Duration seconds: 837

## Resource

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Q2 2026 — UnitedHealth Group (UNH), the largest U.S. health insurer, reported a blowout Q2 2026: adjusted EPS of $6.38 crushed the ~$4.94 estimate and jumped 56% from $4.08 a year ago, as the medical care ratio fell to 86.7% (from 89.4%) and operating profit rose 55% to $8.0B. Management RAISED full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $19.50–$20.00 and doubled buybacks to $5B+. The stock (~$427, up on the print) has nearly doubled off its $235 low and sits ~7% off its $462 recovery high. The catch: revenue was flat, membership is shrinking (down ~1.6M YoY), the beat was flattered by an $860M reserve release, and a DOJ Medicare probe lingers. A year ago UnitedHealth was in free-fall — guidance pulled, a CEO change, surging medical costs, a Justice Department probe — and the stock crashed from over $600 to near $235. Q2 2026 is the clearest sign yet the crisis is over: adjusted EPS of $6.38 crushed the ~$4.94 estimate (up 56% YoY), the all-important medical care ratio fell to 86.7% from 89.4%, operating profit rose 55% to $8.0B, and, unlike its peers, management RAISED full-year guidance to $19.50–$20.00 and doubled buybacks to at least $5B. This is a genuine, high-quality turnaround from the best franchise in healthcare. But we can't pound the table: revenue was essentially flat, membership is shrinking (down ~1.6M YoY as it walks away from unprofitable business), the beat was flattered by an $860M favorable reserve release, and the DOJ Medicare overhang lingers. It's a margin-recovery-on-shrinking-membership story, and the stock has already nearly doubled off its low to ~22x forward earnings. Our owner-earnings work lands fair value near $450 (vs ~$427), modest upside and a touch below the Street's ~$459. Our call: HOLD, 3/5 — a real recovery, roughl…

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