# UAL Stock: United Raised Guidance Through a $6B Fuel Hit — Buy It?

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/ual-stock-united-raised-guidance-through-a-6b-fuel-hit-buy-it
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/ual-stock-united-raised-guidance-through-a-6b-fuel-hit-buy-it.md
Podcast: [Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia](https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792)
Published: 2026-07-17T00:11:43+00:00
Episode link: https://chargedalpha.podbean.com/e/ual-stock-united-raised-guidance-through-a-6b-fuel-hit-%e2%80%94-buy-it/
Audio file: https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/k9csentd7ozeagwm/audio_y.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/episodes/ual-stock-united-raised-guidance-through-a-6b-fuel-hit-buy-it
Duration seconds: 695

## Resource

United Airlines (UAL) Q2 2026 — United Airlines (UAL) reported a strong Q2 2026: revenue up 16% YoY to $17.7B, adjusted EPS $1.99 (beat $1.91), unit revenue (TRASM) +12.1%, with premium revenue +16%, loyalty +11% and cargo +23%. Most notably, it RAISED full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $9.00-$11.00 despite absorbing nearly $6B more fuel cost. The stock (~$119, ~14% off its $139 high, ~12x forward) barely moved. The Street is bullish — a Buy consensus, target ~$155 (+30%). Airlines have destroyed shareholder value for decades — brutally cyclical, capital-hungry, at the mercy of fuel and labor. So is United, the best-run of the group, the exception? Its Q2 2026 was genuinely strong: revenue +16% to $17.7B, adjusted EPS $1.99 (beat), unit revenue +12%, and — the key point — it RAISED full-year guidance to $9-11 adjusted EPS while absorbing a nearly $6B fuel-cost increase. That's pricing power beating input costs. The engine is its premium strategy: premium-cabin revenue +16%, MileagePlus loyalty +11% (the closest thing to an airline moat), and a hard-to-replicate international network. The industry has consolidated to four disciplined carriers, and travelers are trading up to premium — right where United is strongest. At ~12x it's cheap, but we discount airline earnings for cyclicality: our cycle-adjusted fair value lands near $140 (vs $119), below the Street's $155. Our call: BUY, 3/5 — a cheap, well-run airline in a better-structured industry. Own it as a value bet; buy weakness, and watch the demand data, because in airlines the cycle is everything. Not financial advice. THE CALL: BUY (3/5, CHEAP AND EXECUTING — RAISED GUIDANCE THROUGH A FUEL SHOCK) — base-case value ~$140 vs ~$119 today. What to watch: unit revenue and premium demand holding up (pricing power in…

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