# SMPL Stock: Simply Good Foods Beat Earnings but Sales Fell — Cheap Turnaround or Value Trap?

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/smpl-stock-simply-good-foods-beat-earnings-but-sales-fell-cheap-turnaround-or-value-trap
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/smpl-stock-simply-good-foods-beat-earnings-but-sales-fell-cheap-turnaround-or-value-trap.md
Podcast: [Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia](https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792)
Published: 2026-07-09T19:15:45+00:00
Episode link: https://chargedalpha.podbean.com/e/smpl-stock-simply-good-foods-beat-earnings-but-sales-fell-%e2%80%94-cheap-turnaround-or-value-trap/
Audio file: https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/q3e9d689odbyw61i/audio_p.mp3
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Duration seconds: 763

## Resource

Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Q3 FY2026 — Simply Good Foods (Quest, Atkins, OWYN) beat with adjusted EPS of $0.42 vs $0.35, but net sales fell 6% to $357M, an $82M impairment drove a GAAP loss of $(0.58), Atkins collapsed 24.6%, and full-year guidance implies a down year. Simply Good Foods has fallen ~62% from ~$34 to ~$13. It's cheap (~6x EV/EBITDA), cash-generative, and squarely in the protein-snacking megatrend with founder Joe Scalzo back as CEO — but sales and margins are falling, Atkins is collapsing, OWYN is stalling, and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are a real overhang. Our DCF lands ~$12 vs the ~$13 price, so this is a show-me HOLD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, SHOW-ME TURNAROUND) — base-case value ~$12 vs ~$13 today. KEY METRICS: - Q3 FY26: net sales $357M (-6.3%); adjusted EPS $0.42 (beat $0.35, but -18% YoY); GAAP EPS $(0.58) on an $82M impairment - Brands: Quest $230.3M (+1.1%), Atkins $84.6M (-24.6% collapsing), OWYN $34.8M (+3.6% net sales but takeaway -1.3%) - Gross margin 32.5% (-390 bps); adjusted EBITDA $57.2M (-22.5%, 16% margin); marketing spend up ~16% - Balance sheet: $124M cash vs $400M term debt (net debt $276M, 1.2x EBITDA); YTD FCF ~$110M; no dividend; $213M buybacks YTD - FY26 guidance: net sales ~$1.35B (-6% to -7%), adjusted EBITDA ~$220-225M (-19% to -21%) — a down year; Q4 softer - Founder Joe Scalzo returned as CEO Jan 2026 — the turnaround is one quarter old with no proof yet - Valuation ~$13 (down ~62% from ~$34), ~6x EV/EBITDA, ~12x P/FCF — cheap only if the decline bottoms - Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$110M FCF, -4%/+1%, 9-11%): ~$12 fair value vs ~$13 price — essentially fair, wide range - Central debate: GLP-1 weight-loss drugs — demand destruction for snacks vs. GLP-1 users needing more protein What to watch: the OWYN retail takeaway trend, Quest's…

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