# Lamb Weston Stock: It BEAT Earnings and Raised Guidance — So Why We Say HOLD

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/lamb-weston-stock-it-beat-earnings-and-raised-guidance-so-why-we-say-hold
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/lamb-weston-stock-it-beat-earnings-and-raised-guidance-so-why-we-say-hold.md
Podcast: [Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia](https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792)
Published: 2026-07-25T15:01:58+00:00
Episode link: https://chargedalpha.podbean.com/e/lamb-weston-stock-it-beat-earnings-and-raised-guidance-%e2%80%94-so-why-we-say-hold/
Audio file: https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/msjaklom7o7s8b0k/audio_a.mp3
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Duration seconds: 765

## Resource

Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) Q4 FY2026 — Lamb Weston (LW), the world's #1/#2 maker of frozen french fries, reported a strong fiscal Q4 2026: adjusted EPS of $0.87 beat the ~$0.63 estimate on net sales of $1.77B (+6% YoY, volume +7% — the 6th straight quarter of volume growth). But the beat was softer inside: adjusted EBITDA slipped 2% to $288M, GAAP EPS fell 7% to $0.79, and company-wide price/mix dropped 3% as the overbuilt fry industry pressures pricing. North America (~$1.21B, +9%) carried a shrinking International segment (~$564M, -2%). Full-year FY26 net sales of $6.61B and adjusted EBITDA of $1.147B both topped the high end of guidance. FY27 guide: flat-to-+1% sales, adj EBITDA $1.1-1.2B, adj EPS $2.95-3.25, driven by the activist-led 'Focus to Win' cost program ($250M+/yr). Free cash flow was $533M (flattered by slashed capex), and the dividend rose to $0.38/qtr (~3.1% yield). At ~$49.58, our owner-earnings DCF lands fair value near $50 — right at the price. Our call: HOLD, 3/5. We ALIGN with the Street (Hold, ~$50 target). Lamb Weston (LW) is a bet on the global french fry — the #1 or #2 maker of frozen potato products on earth, the fries behind the drive-thru. Fiscal Q4 2026 was a headline beat: adjusted EPS of $0.87 crushed the ~$0.63 estimate on net sales of $1.77B (+6% YoY), with volume up 7% — a sixth straight quarter of volume growth. But look under the hood and it's softer: adjusted EBITDA slipped 2% to $288M, reported net income fell 9%, GAAP EPS dropped 7% to $0.79, and company-wide price/mix fell 3% — Lamb Weston sold more fries for less money as an overbuilt industry pressures pricing. It's a two-speed company: North America (~$1.21B, +9%, volume +11%) is winning share and carrying a struggling International segment (~$564M, -2%, price/mix -4% on Europe…

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