# Intel Stock: Its Best Quarter in 15 Years — and an $11 Billion ’Loss.’ Why We Say HOLD

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/intel-stock-its-best-quarter-in-15-years-and-an-11-billion-loss-why-we-say-hold
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792/intel-stock-its-best-quarter-in-15-years-and-an-11-billion-loss-why-we-say-hold.md
Podcast: [Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia](https://stenobird.com/podcast/charged-alpha-stock-encyclopedia-7819792)
Published: 2026-07-23T21:26:09+00:00
Episode link: https://chargedalpha.podbean.com/e/intel-stock-its-best-quarter-in-15-years-%e2%80%94-and-an-11-billion-loss-why-we-say-hold/
Audio file: https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/mjt1wvdgad88uabj/audio_c.mp3
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Duration seconds: 848

## Resource

Intel Corporation (INTC) Q2 2026 — Intel Corporation (INTC), mid-turnaround under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, reported a blockbuster Q2 2026: adjusted EPS of $0.42 doubled the ~$0.21 estimate on revenue of $16.1B (+25% YoY — its fastest growth since 2011), gross margin inflected to 40.4% (+13 pts), and guidance topped the Street. Client (CCPG) rose 13% to $8.9B and Data Center (DCAI) surged 59% to $6.3B, together earning ~$4.8B of operating profit. The stock popped ~12% after hours to ~$112. Yet GAAP showed an $11B loss — entirely a non-cash $12.5B mark-to-market on shares Intel owes the U.S. government (a liability that grew because the stock tripled); strip it out and Intel earned $2.2B adjusted on $7B of operating cash flow. The catch: Intel Foundry still lost $2.1B (~$8B/yr) with no break-even date, adjusted free cash flow was ~-$8B, the dividend is suspended, and at ~9x sales the stock sits above the Street's ~$107 average target. Our scenario value lands near $90. Our call: HOLD. Intel is the great fallen giant of American technology — the company that defined the PC era, then spent a decade losing its manufacturing lead to TSMC and the AI wave to Nvidia, watching its stock crater near $19. Under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, and now with the U.S. government as a CHIPS Act shareholder, it is mounting a real comeback, and Q2 2026 was the best evidence yet: revenue +25% to $16.1B (the fastest growth since 2011), adjusted EPS of $0.42 (double the estimate), gross margin up ~13 points to 40.4%, and a raised outlook. The profitable products business — Client CPUs +13% and Data Center +59% — earned ~$4.8B of operating profit, while the money-losing Intel Foundry finally narrowed its loss. The scary $11B GAAP loss is a paper charge — a non-cash mark-to-market on shares owed to Washington that gr…

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