# Why Prediction Markets Are Turning Everything Into a Bet

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/channels-with-peter-kafka-487706/why-prediction-markets-are-turning-everything-into-a-bet
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/channels-with-peter-kafka-487706/why-prediction-markets-are-turning-everything-into-a-bet.md
Podcast: [Channels with Peter Kafka](https://stenobird.com/podcast/channels-with-peter-kafka-487706)
Published: 2026-03-25T08:00:00+00:00
Episode link: https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/257/traffic.megaphone.fm/VMP7725124959.mp3?updated=1774386657
Audio file: https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/257/traffic.megaphone.fm/VMP7725124959.mp3?updated=1774386657
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/channels-with-peter-kafka-487706/episodes/why-prediction-markets-are-turning-everything-into-a-bet
Duration seconds: 2754

## Resource

Prediction markets are suddenly everywhere: in sports, in politics, in the media business — and, depending on who you ask, they’re either a useful forecasting tool or just gambling with better branding. So what changed? And why is the federal government sounding more like a booster than a regulator? WIRED’s Kate Knibbs joins me to explain why she made prediction markets her beat, how Kalshi and Polymarket went mainstream, why Trump-world is so friendly to them, why some states are trying to stop them, and what happens when more and more of public life gets turned into a bet. We also talk about media companies cutting deals with prediction-market firms, the blurry rules around insider trading, and why this story is really about the casino-fication of everything. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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## Transcript

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